Obama’s will to fight in Ohio is questionable given his unwillingness to formulate a meaningful attack that strikes at the heart of the perceived Palin/McCain ticket strength.
After posting my observations on Friday September 12, 2008, the news supporting my positions broke and evidence continues to support the above assertion. The Ohio Poll which was released Friday and published throughout Ohio in Saturday’s papers shows that Palin/McCain enjoy a 4 point lead throughout Ohio.
This morning’s Washington Post also confirmed the necessity of an Ohio victory for Obama to win the White House, despite wishful thinking to the contrary by many. Tad Devine in addressing this matter is quoted as saying, "I think it's going to look a lot like 2000 and 2004." Later in the article the following is noted regarding Ohio: “Ohio remains competitive because of the economy, but there are signs that Palin could help boost the vote in rural areas, where Obama was very weak in the primaries.”
Obama’s will to fight in Ohio is questionable given his unwillingness to formulate a meaningful attack that strikes at the heart of the perceived Palin/McCain ticket strength.
After posting my observations on Friday September 12, 2008, the news supporting my positions broke and evidence continues to support the above assertion. The Ohio Poll which was released Friday and published throughout Ohio in Saturday’s papers shows that Palin/McCain enjoy a 4 point lead throughout Ohio.
This morning’s Washington Post also confirmed the necessity of an Ohio victory for Obama to win the White House, despite wishful thinking to the contrary by many. Tad Devine in addressing this matter is quoted as saying, "I think it's going to look a lot like 2000 and 2004." Later in the article the following is noted regarding Ohio: “Ohio remains competitive because of the economy, but there are signs that Palin could help boost the vote in rural areas, where Obama was very weak in the primaries.”
Perhaps more troubling are the following signs:
• Lack of recognizable Obama attack plan.
• Apparent conventional campaign to an unconventional Palin/McCain attack.
• Obama’s indecisiveness and inability to get off defense and play offense.
News today only confirms what most Americans have felt for the last year; we’re in the middle of a worldwide economic depression that frankly is only receiving wide spread attention now that it’s hit the titans of Wall Street. We’re fighting two wars, our world leadership is in question, and if it’s not redundant our economy has nose-dived. Add to this the disarray of the Republican party and it’s troubling with reference to the Obama campaign to see national polls indicating that Palin/McCain are still in this fight and in fact leading in key battleground states like Ohio.
Twenty years ago I remember watching the Dukakis campaign slip from a post convention 17 point lead to a resounding loss in November. Post convention no Democrat thought it possible. Dukakis went back to Massachusetts to tend to the state’s business and lost grasp of the message. He allowed G. H. W. Bush to define the battlefield, the issues and the terms of the debate, slipped into defense and was never able to break the cycle of responding to the Bush attacks.
Roughly 17 days ago McCain announced Sarah Palin as his running mate. This unconventional choice was not unforeseeable. She was on the list but more importantly a female running mate for McCain was not only possible but also likely given the Biden pick. More troubling though is that lack of strategy evident in the Obama campaign designed to deal with a female VP choice. While the Obama campaign would not be expected to “guess” the Palin pick, they were expected to have a developed course of action for a female pick which would have allowed the immediate insertion of opposition research once such a choice was made to clearly attack the “McCain” ticket. THIS CLEARLY DID NOT HAPPEN.
Instead, an entire week slipped by after the Palin announcement, and frankly to this day, where the Republicans were able to define this unknown VP candidate. They had a plan: She was an outsider, a reformer etc. Still no Obama plan of attack. She made a big splash with her address at the convention and now all of America sees her as the Republicans presented her. Now the Obama campaign is left to implement an unplanned defense.
A STRATEGIC BLUNDER AND MISSED OPPORTUNITY ALL IN ONE.
This blunder I argue is analogous to Dukakis in 1988 allowing a 17 point lead to evaporate by not responding to the Bush attacks. He hesitated. Obama has hesitated, and only two weeks into the attack on Obama his staff has only now grasped the fact that he’s under a full frontal assault.
McCain has deftly defined himself as an independent for change; effectively stealing the Change Message from Obama and redefining it for all but the political partisans that work the phone banks and knock on doors. In other words the workaday hardscrabble Joes have only now turned on this election and know little and care less about what has happened in this campaign over the last year let alone who has copyrights to the Change Message.
More troubling though is the Obama campaign’s response in another two step blunder; dimissively admonishing concerned supporters as “hand wringing bedwetters” then attacking McCain as lacking internet savvy, which effectively offended most working class Americans in addition to my father’s generation with little likelihood of generating key swing voter support. Please tell me this is just a joke pulled from the script of Saturday Night Live.
The hallmark of an effective character attack is to strike at the perceived strength of your opponent, forcing him/her to react, then before they’ve had time to regain their footing attack again. This is the political application of the ooda (observe, orient, decide act) loop cycle developed by retired Air Force General Boyd and implemented by industry and militaries around the world; not to mention the Republican Party. Such attack plans are developed and stockpiled for roll-out as a part of all strategy planning. The basic theory is that if you are able to force your opponent to constantly react to your actions, you will have a decisive advantage over him/her and will likely overcome his opposition.
Recall the swiftboat attacks on John Kerry, an attack on his perceived greatest strength, followed by, snowboarding, windsurfing, coupled with a lack of Kerry response, (read indecisiveness) and the next thing you know the average work a day hardscrabble Joe thinks Kerry is a putz.
Today? Obama’s perceived strength is his demeanor and intellect. He’s thoughtful, reflective, articulate, and balanced in a healthy way. All the things that have been absent in the White House over the last 8 years.
Interestingly I remember that was how Dukakis was perceived 20 years ago in contrast to Reagan who prior to revisionist history was going out the door amid scandal (Iran Contra Affair) and having trashed the economy and was generally considered a bumbler. It was inconceivable that Reagan’s VP, G. H. W. Bush would be able to overcome the then Reagan legacy. But he did, in part by a concerted well-orchestrated attack on the perceived strengths of Dukakis and the Massachusetts Miracle. And by the end of the election what was once perceived as a sort of calm sense of control on the part of Dukakis was twisted into a lack of passion on the part of Dukakis.
Obama must attack and it must be a vicious attack. Certainly the words should not pass his lips but that’s what surrogates are for. When confronted Obama can repeat the attack by condemning the attacker and assert his desire to take politics to a higher level. This latter point is important because that is Obama’s brand and he should stick to it. But he should not let his brand be redefined by McCain which is currently happening.
Political personal attacks on an opponent dovetail with GOTV to the extent that they drive down your opponents turn out if deftly handled.
While it’s hard to imagine given the state of our economy and our place in the world that Obama could possibly lose, or that McCain could win, I urge all to accept the reality that McCain has already effectively dealt with the tepid attack that he is simply 4 years more of Bush and has taken the mantle of change. No point in arguing who said it first.
Just make a decision and attack. Holding hands and singing Kumba Ya will not win the day, nor will calling John McCain an internet slow poke. After all he mastered the controls of jet aircraft and managed to learn how to land it on a pitching aircraft carrier in the middle of the night in high seas.